Why Did Cigarette Sales Rise in 2020 After Falling for 20 Years?
For the first time in 20 years, cigarette sales increased in 2020. That’s the conclusion of a new Federal Trade Commission report published yesterday.
Americans bought 203.7 billion cigarettes (about 10.2 billion packs) last year—an increase of 800 million cigarettes, or 0.4 percent. That breaks down to an average of about 300 packs a year for each of the approximately 30 million people who smoke, or a little less than a pack a day each.
Mainstream news outlets have focused on the coronavirus pandemic as the primary reason for the increase, but a more likely cause is the decline of the U.S. vaping market in recent years. There are multiple factors that have led to vaping declines:
- The spread of vaping misinformation and disinformation during the general post-2017 vaping moral panic
- Fear caused by the 2019 “EVALI” lung injury outbreak, which was misattributed to nicotine vaping
- Statewide flavored vape bans adopted in 2019 and 2020
- Federal passage of the Tobacco 21 law
- FDA guidance banning sales of flavored pod- and cartridge-based vapes
- Many states imposing taxes on e-cigarettes and e-liquid
- Vape business closures caused by sales losses and uncertainty over FDA regulations
Many of those factors led to price increases and reduced availability for vaping products. Economists have shown that cigarettes and vaping products are economic substitutes, meaning that a price increase in one causes a boost in sales of the other.
Vape flavor bans may have similar effects. A paper published earlier this year showed that high school smoking increased when a ban on flavored e-cigarettes took effect in San Francisco in 2019.
The mail ban put my main connection out of business, Juicemafia. That’s not a fact but a suspicion. I was happy with my vape products from them for 10 years. Then poof their gone. Now, I am on a endless search for a supplier that can provide me with a similar product that satisfies me for my daily vape. Trouble is, they are rare as hens teeth these days. I vape at 18mg, which is difficult to find. I prefer a smooth tobacco with no aftertaste. Cigarettes were killing me, vaping saved me. A signature on order arrival is no… Read more »
Nailed it Jim, I own a vape store in middle Tn, the federal Government and state governments have no reguard for your health or wellbeing. Only what fills their pockets up. If vaping continues more than likely big tobacco will have it all. Then every teenager in the country will have access to it at your local convenience store along with cigarettes. They dang sure have never been able to buy vape in my store even before it was regulated
I am confused about the math. 800 million cigarettes is 40 million packs for 30 million smokers, so isn’t this about 1.3 packs per smoker, for the year? Where does 300 additional packs a year come from?
It’s 203 billion cigarettes—about 10 billion packs, or 339 each for the 30 million people who smoke.
The 800 million (not billion) figure is the increase from the previous year. The 800 million extra cigarettes add up to 40 million packs TOTAL—for the whole year—an extra 1.3 packs per smoker, or one extra cigarette every two weeks.
Why is two extra cigarettes a month sparking discussions like “people had more opportunity to smoke” or “increased pressures against vaping”? It seems to be as significant as if people drove 2 miles a month less in 2020. However, a quick search shows Americans drove a quarter to half a trillion miles less in 2020. With about a quarter of a billion licensed drivers, that’s about a thousand miles less per person for the year or 80 miles a month. That’s significant. While cigarettes and vaping may be economic substitutes for each other, I am not sure if such a… Read more »
That’s a fair point. But remember that smoking—and cigarette sales—has consistently declined year over year over year for twenty years, so any anomaly deserves some thought.