November 1, 2018

Truth’s JUUL Study: Deception and Confusion

The Truth Initiative has just published a new study that purports to back up FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb’s claim that teenage vaping — and especially teen use of JUUL — has become an epidemic. But their numbers don’t match their claims.

The figure Truth trumpets on its website is that teens aged 15-17 are 16 times more likely to have ever used a JUUL than adults aged 25-34. They also claim that “teens are not just experimenting with the device, but using it regularly,” citing figures for use on 10 or more of the last 30 days.

But the CDC defines frequent use as 20 of the last 30 days, not 10. In fact, Truth’s paper doesn’t even show the prevalence of use on 20 or more of the last 30 days, or anything beyond 10 or more. Why? Maybe because the number of 15- to 17-year-olds that vape frequently remains very small. Maybe because habitual use is only common among teens who already smoke. Even using the liberal version of “regular use” that Truth adopts in the study, the results don’t show the epidemic Truth claims they do.

Among 15- to 17-year-olds, just 1.5 percent used the JUUL on 10 or more of the last 30 days. That sounds suspiciously similar to recent National Youth Tobacco Survey results. In 2017, 1.6 percent vaped on 20 or more of the last 30 days, and just 1.1 percent vaped daily. In 2015 — the year with the highest past-30-day youth e-cigarette use — 1.7 percent vaped on 20 says or more.

Is it possible that a similar number of kids regularly vape now as then, but are using different devices? Quite possible. But Truth also deliberately confuses the results by possibly splitting JUUL use from other “ENDS” use. They list them separately, and never explain if the JUUL users are a subset of the larger ENDS group, or listed in addition to the non-JUUL vapers.

They say 11 percent of 15- to 17-year-olds are ENDS users, and leave it to the reader to guess whether to add or subtract the 6 percent of the group that uses JUUL. How likely is it that the number of high school vapers jumped to 17 percent and Truth didn’t point it out? Not very.

It’s as though the study were written to confuse anyone who actually reads it. Of course, most people don’t read it — including reporters. Most early news stories pretty much stuck close to the press release. Then, as you might expect, the statement on the Truth website takes the already confusing study and twists it into even more complicated knots.

When Truth released its first JUUL study in April, they used rhetorical tricks to exaggerate their findings, and that hasn’t changed with the new study. I don’t claim to be a scientist or an expert on scientific communication to lay readers, but it seems rather deceptive to express a number as a percentage of a larger percentage, rather than just describing it as a percentage of the whole sample, or — god forbid — stating the actual number itself. Example:

“Among 15- to 17-year-olds who used JUUL in the past 30 days, 56 percent used the e-cigarette on three or more days and almost half of that group used it on 10 or more days in the past month,” says the press release.

If you read that quickly, you might come away thinking that half of all kids used a JUUL on 10 or more days. But they didn’t. Let’s rewrite that to tell the simple truth: “Just 1.5 percent of 15- to 17-year-olds vaped a JUUL on 10 or more days of the month. We won’t tell you how many vaped on 20 or more days, or every day, but it was an even smaller percentage.” Those are actual numbers from the survey.

Or, even better yet — and also using Truth’s actual numbers: “We surveyed 13,357 people between ages 15 and 34. Of the 15- to 17-year-olds, 34 of them used a JUUL on 10 or more days of the last 30…yadda yadda yadda…it’s an epidemic!”

What no one has explained is the bizarre survey question the Truth researchers used:

“Ever JUUL use was measured with the item: ‘Have you ever smoked a JUUL vape?’, with responses 1=yes, 0=no. Current JUUL use was defined as those who had used the device in the past 30 days, and was measured with the item: ‘During the past 30 days, on how many days did you smoke a JUUL vape?’ Participants were prompted to enter the number of days between 0 and 30.”

Has anyone ever “smoked a JUUL vape”? What does that even mean? Truth Initiative knows from its own research that teens use verbs like “vape” and (rarely) “juul” for the practice of using a JUUL. Why on earth did Truth choose this survey to challenge the accepted language teens use for vaping? Are they trying to provide a route to later question the validity of their own study? Or could they just not bear to use the same words that real people use to describe vaping a JUUL?

Speaking of smoking, according to Truth more 15- to 17-year-olds used combustible tobacco in the last 30 days than used a JUUL. That didn’t make the press release. Have you noticed that Truth and Tobacco-Free Kids pay virtually no attention to smoking anymore? Guess which powerful tobacco control groups would become completely irrelevant if vaping turned cigarettes into last century’s problem.

The study, published in the journal Tobacco Control, is really only a frame for the larger anti-vaping pressure campaign on the FDA. It was coordinated to release simultaneously with a letter from Senate Democrats to Scott Gottlieb demanding action on vape flavors — just like the last time. And the news outlets favored by tobacco control orgs had the story, told the “right” way, ready to go the moment the Truth study was released.

The study’s conclusion is chock full of policy recommendations that — surprise! — are exactly the actions Gottlieb has already said he’s considering — with some extras thrown in. They call on the FDA to:

  • Immediately institute premarket review (PMTA’s) for all vaping products
  • Prohibit internet sales of all tobacco products, including vapes
  • Ban all flavored products (unless proven to be marketed primarily for adults to “switch completely”)

Instituting any one of those actions would effectively cripple the independent vaping industry — and all of them at once would kill it. Scott Gottlieb and Mitch Zeller are going to do something in a couple of weeks. And they just might decide to throw millions of smokers under the bus because of 34 kids who hit a friend’s JUUL on 10 of the last 30 days.

The Truth website includes a video (shown above) that raises lots of disturbing questions. It shows clips of what Truth says are teenagers on YouTube juuling. (At least one of them, Zophie Vapes, is over 30, and the video her clip is pulled from is about how she doesn’t use the JUUL.) Why would Truth Initiative include the faces and voices of people it claims are teenagers in its public flogging of an e-cigarette company it accuses of victimizing kids? And why dig up clips from multiple videos that have already been removed from YouTube?

Did the YouTubers or their parents give consent? Were they notified that their images would be used in a political video from an activist anti-vaping organization? Is YouTube cooperating with Truth’s self-serving attacks on vaping and providing them with content? Who preserved the deleted videos and allowed Truth to edit them into a propaganda document?

Anyone is fair game in Truth’s war to eliminate safer sources of nicotine. Teenagers who make a video for YouTube get the same treatment as the multi-billion dollar company that stands in the way of Truth’s mission to protect its status, which depends in many ways on preserving the cigarette market. And the 36 million American smokers who could benefit from vaping are ignored and abandoned, as usual.

Note: Truth Initiative's video (shown above) was later altered to remove Zophie Vapes (and perhaps other video clips). The version linked above is the edited version.

Smokers created vaping without any help from the tobacco industry or anti-smoking crusaders, and vapers have the right to keep innovating to help themselves. My goal is to provide clear, honest information about the challenges vaping faces from lawmakers, regulators, and brokers of disinformation. I recently joined the CASAA board, but my opinions aren’t necessarily CASAA’s, and vice versa. You can find me on Twitter @whycherrywhy

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great reporting. they propose to prohibit online sales? talk about overreach

Michael J. McFadden

Jim, the rhetorical language, the conflating, the carefully delimited and chosen statistics and their selected presentation as numbers or as percentages… These are all the old tricks the same Antismokers, now dressed up in their new Scary Antivapers’ costumes, have been using for years. Let me point you to two sites where those sorts of lies are exposed for what they are and where you can read about more methods of attacking and destroying those lies.

The first is to a big print, Tom Paine style pamphlet that I designed back in 2005 for quick reading in dimly lit bars under attack by Antismokers. It met with some success here in Philadelphia in the bars I was able to get it distributed to, but it didn’t have a wide enough distribution to fight the 2006 wave of state bans that the well-funded (500 to 900 MILLION dollars PER YEAR from smokers’ taxes) Tobacco Control folks poured into the campaigns. “The Lies Behind The Smoking Bans” is mainly aimed at smoking rather than vaping, but the techniques behind the language and the lies that are used are the same. The Antisvapers have one thing that is VERY strongly in common with their earlier incarnation: their lies are their weak point and it’s where you can hit them. See: [BAD LINK REMOVED] , print and bind it as suggested, and share it around! It looks a bit soft onscreen, but that’s because it was very carefully plotted out to have its real impact in printed form — with each page being pretty much its own unit.

The second resource also emphasizes smoking and lies, and, again, is fully applicable to the Antivapers. See: The Truth Is A Lie, at:

Best wishes in your fight!

Michael J. McFadden

Author of “Dissecting Antismokers’ Brains”

Philadelphia, PA USA


I have a idea. On 11/06/18 we vapers go out and let our representatives know how we feel about their positions on vaping.

Gottlieb is a bureaucrat running like a girl worried about what side he’ll fall on Tuesday.

Dick Durbin and 10 other hand wringing Democrat nannies are the ones who’ve pushed this JUUL crap.

Dick Durbin is one of the oldest rats in the Washington DC sewer. I’ve watched him support bans on guns & now vaping for over 20 years . Ban this, ban that.

I’d love to see him banned Tuesday.

If Schumer, Feinstein, and Pelosi were toppled would be the best Christmas present the country could get.

The Gottlieb could put his skirts down ‘ stop this banning flavors nonsense.

After all, this president has no problem firing people.

Vote on Tuesday 11/06!!!


The problem isn’t one representative over another (both parties have had control over both houses time and time again). The problem is none of the representatives seem to represent the people in their districts and what those people believe. They vote people into office by sound bite and commercials that don’t give you the best look at what these politicians actually believe or what they would be inclined or not inclined to vote for.

Unfortunately, the political system wasn’t intended to stomp on people’s freedoms, it was intended to run a country (maintaining a military, infrastructure, covering costs to maintain said services, etc.). It was not intended to create career politicians that have no knowledge of the day to day life of individuals. It was not intended to allow a non-human entity to have more protected rights than a human.

Government has grown too big to truly and effectively lead this country. The politicians that run for office and win need to have enough money for their campaigns to be successful which means they must cater to the people and corporations that contribute that money (ultimately, selling the office to the highest bidder).

The vape industry is a “mom and pop” industry and not a large corporate entity that usually reins triumph in the political landscape. Rallying to be heard is the only way to get the powers that be to see that vaping isn’t the monster that FDA is trying to make it. This is the only way to save this industry otherwise it is going to go by the wayside like so many other things have over the years.

Jim McDonald

Schumer and Durbin aren’t up for election this year.

Why would Democrats be able to pressure Gottlieb/Azar/Trump into taking action against the vaping industry? With the White House and both houses of Congress in Republican hands, they should be doing what they want. And I think they are. I have no reason to believe Gottlieb isn’t following the orders of his bosses. That’s what executive agency heads do.

Republicans haven’t done anything in Congress to help the vaping industry (or vapers) during the FOUR YEARS they’ve had majorities in both houses. Why do you think it’ll change?


Absolutely appalling. Calling Sourin Air’s and Phix’s “knockoffs”, using a vape reviewer in their anti-vape video. I really hope some of the Youtubers shown in this video take some kind of action to get it taken down.


I got an idea. Since the FDA and Truth and all other anti-vaping groups are worried about teens using Juul and their subsequent use of nicotine, then just require that all Juul products sold in convenience stores be sold without nicotine. Hell, let’s just make all vaping products sold out of convenience store be sold without nicotine. There the problem is solved. No need to ban flavors.

Jim McDonald

Hmm. Doesn’t that destroy the whole purpose of having them in convenience stores? I like the idea of products that compete against cigarettes being right there for smokers to consider trying.


I was being sarcastic. Big tobacco needs competition (just like any industry) which is the reason I see the FDA going after the vape industry in the first place. Big Tobacco is using whatever means necessary to take out its only real competition. They have to hold onto as many smokers as they can or their industry is going to be a mute point. Even if they go all in on producing vape products, they will still be playing catch-up.

I also realized I should have pointed out that they need to remove all nicotine from all products sold in convenience store (including cigarettes).


I completely agree Jim! Removing nicotine from convenience stores defeats the purpose of them being there. I would prefer they increase the age restriction to 21 and require a photoID. If it is treated the same as alcohol it will be more difficult to get…. though not impossible…… There should also be massive fines for stores that don’t ID check. In California it is legal to smoke weed, tobacco and drink alcohol….. But Vapes are the issue. I don’t disagree that this is an issue that needs to be addressed. Middle schoolers are getting their hands on vapes and its worth cracking down, but taking away people’s choice, who are trying to quit or stay off cigarettes, seems like it has the words “future Supreme Court case” written all over it.

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