Could the vapor market reach $47 billion by 2025?

Market analysts are forecasting big things for vape in the future. But are they forgetting the elephant in the room?


The global vapor products market could grow to $47 billion within ten years. That’s the prediction of a market research report released this week. They also predict double digit growth every year.

The report was prepared by Research and Markets, an aggregator of financial reporting that sells its research to corporations and investors. It’s hard to know how they reach the conclusion about the growth rate of the market — unless you’re prepared to buy the report for $4,200 — but the information shown in the summary indicates it’s probably mostly an analysis of Nielson-tracked sales. Nielson surveys typical tobacco sales channels like convenience stores and gas stations.

“In spite of the proposals of stringent regulations and policies governing the e-cigarette market, the revenue from the key geographical regions will continue to rise at a double digit CAGR [compound annual growth rate] through the forecast period,” says the press release.

“While North America, with U.S. leading the way will dominate the market throughout the forecast period,” it continues, “APAC will be growing at the fastest CAGR, accounting for more than 27% of the global e-cigarette market value by 2025.”

How many regular vapers do you know who just use cigalikes?

Well, maybe. Or maybe the FDA’s deeming regulations will succeed in completely destroying growth by stifling independent companies’ innovation. According to Wells Fargo’s Bonnie Herzog, the independent products represent well more than half of the market in the United States.

We know that most vapers who have quit smoking completely have found more success with open-systems products like tanks and mods. How many regular vapers do you know who just use cigalikes?

The idea that all those open-systems vapers will switch to the starter products sold by the companies that survive deeming is questionable at best. It may mean that the biggest competitor to the investors’ FDA-approved corporate e-cigarettes will be a robust and unstoppable black market.

Is this report for real?

The summary of the report almost looks like a word cloud of buzz terms and financial double-talk. Or maybe it’s me. How does this sound to you? “The key market players identified in the e-cigarette and vaporizer industry include Altria, Lorrilard, ShenzenSmoore Technology Limted, Kangertech, First Union, Kimree, British American Tobacco, CB Distributors, Fontem Ventures, and Cigavette among others.”

Cigavette? I googled them. They do exist. Are they at all relevant to any real forecast of the market? Probably not. Are they a “key market player”? No chance. Does that mean the report is hot air? It’s hard to say, but if anyone has $4,200 lying around, we can find out for sure.

Jim McDonald
I spend most of my time studying the regulatory, legislative and scientific challenges to vaping, advocating for our right to exist, and talking with others who do the same. Consider me a source for information, and feel free to agree or disagree with anything I say. I love good coffee and sweet Michigan cherries. My childhood hero was Gordie Howe.
  • jonsieling

    I seriously doubt it! I think the government is just inflating numbers to justify high taxes and fees. They are going to get a harsh awakening when they realize that nobody is getting rich.

    • Jim McDonald

      You may be right, but these numbers don’t come from the government.