2024 NYTS: Youth Smoking Is Practically Dead

Last month we reported that U.S. middle and high school vaping rates declined again in 2024. Past 30-day vaping was down to just 5.9% of students—the lowest level in 10 years, and a 70.5% decline from its peak in 2019. 

But the CDC and FDA, who conduct the annual National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS), didn’t report cigarette smoking results along with the vaping numbers—perhaps because they don’t want the public to get the idea that vaping has played any part in driving smoking rates down.

Yesterday, scientists from the agencies published an analysis of the 2024 NYTS that included smoking and other tobacco product results. Although the article warned in its opening line that all “tobacco use” is unsafe and “nearly all tobacco product use begins during adolescence,” the news was uniformly good.

Teen smoking is practically dead and buried

Past-30 day cigarette smoking (so as little as a single puff on one day) among middle and high school students has fallen to 1.4%—the fourth year in a row it has been under 2%, and the lowest number ever measured.

Past-30 day use of all combustible products (cigarettes, cigars, hookahs, pipe tobacco, or bidis) in 2024 was 2.8%, and use of what the CDC calls “any tobacco product” (so all consumer nicotine products) was 8.1%—the first time that number has fallen below 10%.

Nicotine pouch past-30 day use increased slightly, from 1.5% to 1.8%, but there is no evidence to support the restrictions called for by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other political leaders. Pouches remain a niche product among teenagers.

To put the declines in perspective, among high school students in 2011 the past-30 day cigarette smoking rate was 15.8%. Between 2011 and 2024, high school cigarette smoking has declined by more than 89%.

Use of any combustible product by high schoolers has declined since 2011 by 85%—from 21.8% to 3.3%.

All of tobacco control's crises are melting away

Youth nicotine use in general is clearly in steep decline, and smoking is almost extinct. But the people whose livelihood depends on a thriving and permanent crisis are not willing to admit victory.

The authors of the NYTS analysis warned about the continued danger of flavored vapes—which are widely available and don’t seem to have prevented the youth vaping rate from plummeting over the last five years.

“Multiple factors continue to influence tobacco product use and initiation among adolescents,” they wrote, “including availability of youth-appealing flavored products, marketing, harm misperceptions, the emergence of new flavor types (e.g., ice flavors [flavors that combine cooling and fruit or sweet flavors, such as blueberry ice or strawberry ice]), and product features.”

The FDA, which has been engaged in an inept years-long whack-a-mole war on the huge flavored disposable vape market, will soon face a showdown in the Supreme Court over its mishandling of vaping product marketing applications. But yesterday FDA Center for Tobacco Products Director Brian King was talking tough.

“We’re headed in the right direction when it comes to reducing tobacco product use among our nation’s youth,” said King in a press release. “But we can’t take our foot off the gas. Continued vigilance is needed to continue to reduce all forms of tobacco product use among youth.”

The nicotine landscape remains a never-ending emergency for Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids CEO Yolonda Richardson, who warned in a grim press release that the 70% decline in youth vaping could be a mirage.

“The tobacco industry will continue to find new ways to attract and addict kids," she said, “and over 1.6 million kids still use e-cigarettes and 42% of high school users report frequent or daily use, a strong indication they are addicted to the high-nicotine products now on the market.”

Previous National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) coverage

What Epidemic? Youth Vaping Dropped 23% in the Past Year (Sept. 5, 2024)

In 2023 Youth Vaping Declined Again - Now Down Over 60% Since 2019 Peak (Nov. 2, 2023)

In 2022, Kids Are Back in School but Vaping Barely Ticked Up (Oct. 6, 2022)

2021 CDC Survey Shows Teenage Smoking Is Almost Extinct (March 10, 2022)

CDC Says Youth Vaping Dropped More Than 40% in 2021 (Sept. 30, 2021)