Sweden’s failure to form a government following its September election could delay a European Union agreement on new tobacco and nicotine taxes, or change whether Sweden blocks the proposal at all.
The European Commission wants to extend EU-wide minimum excise taxes to additional nicotine products, including nicotine pouches. Sweden has opposed provisions that would limit countries’ ability to tax nicotine products differently according to their relative health risks.
The proposed changes to the Tobacco Excise Directive (TED) were originally scheduled for discussion and a possible agreement by EU finance ministers on Oct. 9. According to Snusforumet, the decision was postponed until November, partly to allow Sweden time to establish a new government. That timetable is now increasingly uncertain.
On Oct. 15, Sweden’s parliament rejected Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson as prime minister by 248 votes to 99. The vote followed unsuccessful coalition negotiations among four parties that collectively won 176 of the parliament’s 349 seats in September. The opposing bloc holds 173 seats, but disagreements between the Centre Party and Left Party have prevented Andersson from assembling a viable government.
Outgoing Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson resigned in September, leaving a caretaker administration in place. On Oct. 19, the parliamentary speaker asked Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist to explore forming a government, giving her until Oct. 26 to report back. The political stalemate has complicated Sweden’s participation in EU negotiations at a particularly sensitive moment for nicotine taxation.
The European Commission’s proposed excise overhaul would bring products such as nicotine pouches under common EU tax rules for the first time. Sweden supports some tax harmonization but has argued that smoke-free nicotine products should not automatically face tax requirements comparable to those imposed on combustible tobacco.
In June, Sweden opposed a proposed compromise that would have established a minimum nicotine pouch tax of approximately 1,045 Swedish kronor per kilogram. The outgoing government argued that member states must retain the freedom to set taxes reflecting differences in product risk.
EU tax legislation requires unanimous agreement among member states. Sweden can block the directive by voting against it, but an abstention would not prevent its adoption.
Patrik Strömer, secretary general of the Association of Swedish Snus Manufacturers, told Snusforumet that the November timetable may already be unrealistic. He also warned that Sweden’s eventual government might be less willing to exercise its veto, even if it supports differentiated taxation.
Ireland, which holds the rotating EU presidency through December, is seeking an agreement before its term ends. Continued delays could push negotiations into 2027, when Lithuania takes over.
For nicotine pouch users and manufacturers, the consequences extend beyond Sweden. The outcome could determine whether EU countries retain substantial flexibility to distinguish between cigarettes and smoke-free nicotine products when setting minimum taxes.
Sweden’s next government may therefore decide more than its domestic nicotine policy. Its willingness to oppose the proposed directive in Brussels could determine whether the EU's nicotine tax overhaul moves forward.
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